Context

Imbalance prices are a crucial component of electricity markets, providing financial incentives every 15 minutes to help balance the grid by adjusting production and consumption. This analysis focuses on Belgium from January 2020 to April 2024, with a particular emphasis on negative imbalance prices.

Key Findings

• Increasing negativity of imbalance prices: The first graph shows that when imbalance prices are negative, their magnitude is becoming increasingly larger (more negative) over time.
• Growing share of negative imbalance prices: The second graph reveals that the proportion of imbalance prices with a negative value is rising, reaching nearly 40% in January and April 2024.
• Rising cumulative value: The third graph presents the combined effect—the monthly cumulative value of negative imbalance prices—which has been steadily increasing.

Julien Jomaux’s analysis confirms that being able to quickly respond to these negative prices—by increasing consumption or decreasing production—has become increasingly valuable.

Conclusion

Given the growing volatility and frequency of negative imbalance prices, battery parks and flexible energy assets are well-positioned to capitalize on these market conditions. The data suggest a promising future for battery installations in Belgium’s evolving energy landscape.

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Sources : https://gemenergyanalytics.substack.com/p/solar-and-the-need-for-more-flexibility

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